Senate votes to take up health care bill

NEWS & COMMENTARY

Senate votes to take up health care bill
vote was along party lines

November 21, 2009
UPDATE BELOW

ORIGINAL STORY:

Today (Saturday, 11-21-09) may be an historic day. The Senate is scheduled to vote on procedural issues on the health care bill at 8:00 p.m. The outcome could sink the Obama presidency.

The vote today is but a symbolic test vote...unless it goes against the Democrats.

Here's how it will work. The vote will be on a motion to cut off debate, called cloture, on the health care bill and proceed to consider the bill itself. If will take 60 votes to cut off debate. There are 58 Democrats in the Senate now and two independents who meet with the Democrat caucus. If all of those hold the line cloture will be invoked and debate on whether to consider the bill will proceed.

If the vote fails, the current bill will not be considered. The matter is not dead but could and will be brought back up after enough changes are made to the bill to comply with Senate rules. Then the process is repeated. Once the bill is accepted for floor debate the real battle begins. The next significant part of the process will be to consider amendments to the bill. Each proffered amendment will be voted on separately, unless the rules are suspended. Then another cloture vote will be taken, this time to cut off debate on the bill itself. That is the significant vote. It will determine whether the bill passes or fails.

The chances are even some senators who oppose the bill itself will vote for cloture in this test vote and then will seek to amend the bill during the debate process. Then, depending on how those amendments turn out they will determine whether to vote for or against the bill. (This is how John Kerry became famous for "I voted for the bill before I voted against it.")

What the vote will tell us today is how strong the opposition to the basics of the bill is among Democrats and the two independents. If the Democrat leaders fail to get 60 votes it will be interesting. But if they fail to get close to 60 votes it may foretell the ultimate outcome. If the vote is, say between 55 and 60 to invoke cloture then the signal will be to wheel and deal to get five to convert. If the vote is, say 65+ for cloture then the signal will be a good omen for the Democrats and less wheeling and dealing will be needed.

As we have reported, the wheeling and dealing has already begun and it has already been extensive. It will continue. That Majority Leader Harry Reid (and the White House) have already conceded $100 million in "payment" to Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu indicates that they know they are very close to losing the cloture vote. They see her vote as essential.

But the big issue will come if the vote is to take up the bill. Then the issue will shift to abortion. Amendments will be offered to strengthen the prohibition of using either tax dollars or premiums revenue for abortions while others will seek to expand and guarantee "the woman's right to choose" or what is euphemistically called "reproductive health care" or for abortion. Whichever way the abortion issue shakes out will then either crystallize some votes for and other against and the final outcome will most likely be determined by how those votes shake out.

Of course the cost of the "reforms" will be a big issue also, but we would predict that it will not be either a deal-maker or a deal-breaker. It will be the bucket that carries the water for the main issue...where the handful of senators from "swing" states come down on the bill.

And North Carolina's junior senator, Kay Hagan, is among those "in the middle" senators. Polls show that a substantial majority of North Carolinian voters are opposed to the Democrat leadership (and White House) version of health care reform. Thus, Hagan will have to decide whether she will support the party and take a chance of being a one-term senator or whether she will vote the way her constituents want her to vote.

Welcome to the republican form of government.

At this point, North Carolina's senators are divided. The Winston Salem Journal is reporting that Sen. Richard Burr has come out in opposition to the current bill while Sen. Hagan has said she supports the current bill.

If you want to get involved click here, enter you zip code and you will be taken to a page that list all of your representatives. Click on Sen. Burr's or Sen. Hagan's name and it will take you to their page. Click on "contact" you will find the contact information for each senator.

UPDATE: The U. S. Senate voted Saturday (11-21-09) night to proceed with consideration of the Heath Care Reform bill. The vote was 60 to 39, along party lines.

The vote does not insure passage of the bill, only that it will now be open to debate and amendments. It will take weeks to work through that process, with Democrat leaders hoping to bring the bill itself to a vote before Christmas. The closeness of the vote means that the eventual outcome will hinge on the amendments made to this bill and the deals that are made to hold the 60 votes which are necessary for passage. Even then the Senate version and the House version will have to be reconciled in conference committee. This vote does not mean that a 60-vote majority will ultimately support a public option or abortions on demand being covered. And then there is the cost...But beyond all that, the special interests that will fight the bill did not fight this vote.

One of the Democrat hold-out senators who has said she opposes some of the significant provisions of the bill bargained to have the bill include as much as $300 million in special funding for her state. Sen. Mary Landrieu said she was not defensive about going after the extra money because of all the suffering Louisiana has suffered since Hurricane Katrina.

Check back later for more.

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